How to spot if society is DOOMED: Researchers reveal the signs that show civilization is set to collapse

   Researchers examined archaeological records of the European Neolithic
    This revealed there were a number of early warning signs before collapse
    They say the framework could help predict similar fate in modern society[CN]

研究人员调查了欧洲新时期时代的火山记录。调查显示，文明沦陷之前有诸多早期预警暗示。他们声称这个体系亦可预测现代社会相同的命运。

Researchers examined 2,378 archaeological sites from nine regions of Neolithic Europe to determine if early warning signs were present before the collapse of a civilization. The image above illustrates life in the Neolithic Age
[CN]

研究人员调查了欧洲新石器时代九大地区的2378个考古遗址，以确定一个文明倒塌之前是否有早期的警告预示存在。以上图片为新石器时代的人们生活

The graph 'illustrates how critical slowing down can be detected in a model system that transitions from a high growth regime to low growth,' the researchers explain. The team found that such warning signs did line up with the eventual collapse of a given community[CN]

该图说明的是在高速增长政权向低速增长转变的现代模拟体系中，关键时期的低速增长是可以检测出来的。研究人员如是说。这个团队发现，这些警示与一个社会的最终没落是完全吻合的。

During the Neolithic period, illustrated, the communities experienced massive population growth as a result of the emergence of agriculture and technological advancements. But, these developments also led to ‘periods of devastating societal instability'[CN]

新石器时代，如图，由于农业科技的发展，社会人口大量增长。但是，这些发展也导致了社会不稳定的灾难性时代到来。

It has been seen all throughout human history – a bustling community experiences a population boom and technological advancement until, seemingly overnight, it plummets into total collapse.[CN]

人类历史已经证实了这一点 – 人满为患的社会经历一个新的人口激增和科技进步，直到某个临界点，一夜之间，分崩离析。

Now, researchers may have developed the framework to predict these events before they happen.[CN]

如今，研究人员们已经创造出一个体系，可在社会崩溃前预测到这些大事。

By analyzing archaeological records of the European Neolithic communities, which existed roughly 9,000 years ago, researchers have identified the early warning signals linked to societal downfall.[CN]

通过分析欧洲新石器时代的考古记录（约9000年前），研究人员已经确认了与社会崩溃有关的早期暗示。

In a study published to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they explain that this new framework could help to prevent future catastrophes as the modern world copes with major societal shifts.

The researchers from the University of Maryland and University College London investigated whether early warning signals are present when an ecosystem begins to show declining resilience.

This phenomenon can indicate the forthcoming of ‘major reorganization,’ or a regime shift within the ecosystem, and subsequently, a collapse.

To do this, they examined 2,378 archaeological sites from nine regions of Neolithic Europe.

During this period, the communities experienced massive population growth as a result of the emergence of agriculture and the technological advancements that followed.

While these developments may seem beneficial, they also led to ‘periods of devastating societal instability that we are only now beginning to understand,’ the authors wrote.

They analyzed the records for two types of signals: critical slowing down and flickering.

‘CSD describes a general increase in the time it takes a system to recover from external shocks such as population loss due to disease, warfare, or crop failure,’ they wrote.

‘Flickering describes increasing directional bias in a system’s response rate to such perturbations, such as a society stuck in a socio-ecological trap where strong reinforcing behaviour and a lack of innovation prevents adaptation.

‘Here, flickering would suggest increasing recovery time from population decline events relative to growth events before major collapse.’

In their investigation, the team found that such warning signs did line up with the eventual collapse of a given community.

While this analysis was retrospective, the researchers say the framework could help to interpret these signals in the social and nature factors of modern communities as well, including growth and collapse, climate change, resource degradation, disease, and warfare.

This could help to predict whether future communities will face a similar fate.

‘It remains unclear whether modern technological innovation can continue to outpace demand,’ the authors wrote, ‘and it is important for sustainability scientists to consider the possibility that generic mechanisms can contribute to demographic collapse in human societies, as well as to develop ways to detect declining resilience.’