China faces headaches from warming Vietnam-U.S. ties
HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) - At a stroke, the U.S. and Vietnam have complicated the strategic outlook for China over the disputed South China Sea.[CN]
香港/北京 （路透社）美越建交，中国南海争议战略局面一下子错综复杂。
As U.S. President Barack Obama marked one of his last trips to Asia by the historic lifting of Washington's arms embargo on Vietnam, he repeatedly insisted it was not directed at Beijing.[CN]
奥巴马亚洲之旅末站，历史性废除华盛顿对越南的武器禁运。他再三强调，此举并非针对中国。
And yet regional military sources and security analysts say China will face short and longer term strategic headaches from the fully normalized relationship between former enemies in Hanoi and Washington.[CN]
然而当地军方人士和军队安全分析师指出，昔日帝国美越全面正常化建交，中国将面临长期和短期的战略性刺头。
U.S. President Barack Obama shakes hands with Vietnam's President Tran Dai Quang after an arrival ceremony at the presidential palace in Hanoi, Vietnam May 23, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria[CN]
图为2016年5月23日越南河内府邸进行欢迎仪式，奥巴马总统和越南总统陈大光握手。路透社/Carlos Barria报道
Operationally, China faces the short-term prospect of Vietnam obtaining U.S.-sourced radars and sensors, surveillance planes and drones to better monitor and target Chinese forces, the analysts say.[CN]
从行动上讲，可预见越南将获得美国资助的雷达和感应器，侦察机和无人机，以便更好监察和瞄准中国军队。
In the longer term, the move makes Hanoi a key player in Obama's strategic pivot to East Asia. U.S. arms manufacturers will compete with Russia for big-ticket weapons sales to Vietnam. The U.S. Navy may get a long-held wish to use Cam Ranh Bay, the best natural harbor in the South China Sea, military sources say.[CN]
长远上看，这次行动，河内将成为美国重返东亚战略中心的重要棋子。美国制造商将与俄国竞争出售越南的大批量武器订单。为此，美国可能获得金兰湾（中国南海最好的自然海港）的长期使用权。军方人士指出。
Then there is the prospect of political cooperation and greater intelligence sharing over China's assertiveness, according to diplomatic sources, even if Vietnam shuns any formal steps towards a military alliance.
Such moves dovetail with the goals of Vietnam's military strategists who have told Reuters they want to discreetly raise the costs on China's rapidly modernizing forces from attacking Vietnam again.
Vietnam understands that a future conflict with their giant neighbor would be vastly more difficult than the bloody land battles on their northern border that rumbled through the 1980s, or the sea battle over the Spratlys in 1988.
RELYING ON DIPLOMACY
Chinese official reaction has so far been muted.
But Beijing is paying close attention to Vietnam's acquisition of modern weaponry and deployments in the South China Sea, said Ruan Zongze, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, a think tank linked to the Foreign Ministry.
"It's not impossible that this will then impact the territorial issue between China and Vietnam," said Ruan, a former Chinese diplomat.
Zhang Baohui, a mainland security expert at Hong Kong's Lingnan University, said he believed Vietnamese planners knew they could never prevail against the modern Chinese military, so they had to rely on diplomacy to keep stable relations with Beijing.
Zhang said he expected this to continue, despite the Obama visit, saying it was the "cheapest form of defense".
"Vietnam is working the U.S. into an enhanced deterrence strategy," he said. "To enhance its relations with China, they have to play the U.S. card," he said.
CAM RANH BAY
U.S. naval officials say they are keen to gradually increase ship visits, but are aware of Vietnamese concerns over pushing China too hard.
When in March Vietnamese officials announced the opening of a new international port in Cam Ranh to foreign navies, China was one of the first militaries to get a formal invite, according to reports in Vietnam's military press.
U.S. port calls are currently long-planned formal affairs. But U.S. military officials say a servicing agreement is one long term option to allow U.S. warships to make routine visits to Cam Ranh Bay.
Security analysts say even a small increase in ship visits, for example, would complicate China's operations in the South China Sea, now centered on dual-use facilities being built on seven artificial islands in the Spratlys archipelago.
China claims 80 percent of the South China Sea as its territory, while Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei also have overlapping claims across one of the world's most important shipping lanes.
Lifting the embargo not only offers an opportunity for U.S. arms makers in Vietnam but elsewhere in rapidly developing Southeast as well, said a military advisor in Thailand.
"The U.S. sees opportunity and demand opening up in various other countries, such as Laos and Cambodia, which use weapons from Russia and China," said Panitan Wattanayagorn, an adviser to Thailand's Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon.
"Their economies are expanding, but they still have old weapons so there is an opportunity."
很多证据表明，南穆入侵扶持法国傀儡伪越南政权就是一个彻头彻尾的错误，招致无数人无辜惨死，看看今天的越南再对比一下过去的法国殖民时期。美国有些人直接跳过越南的人权问题，实际上他们自己国家的人权问题就还没解决干净。为奥巴马的到访鼓掌。古有美国尼克松总统的乒乓外交访华，仅有奥巴马总统外交出访越南。
Greg Torode和Megha Rajagopalan两位兄弟，你怎么知道美越建交，中方头痛不已？中国有政治领导人告诉你了吗，还是有问你要拿药治头痛？不要想当然...如果中国真的担心美国跟它的邻国建立亲密关系，它现在可就没那么淡定了。大层面上讲我倒是愿意说，是美国更担心中国崛起，正在寻找盟友，以及种下地方冲突的祸根来针对中国。
为解救越南免受独裁暴政，美国超过5万多士兵为越南捐躯。如今我们成为了盟友，他们经济上是资本主义，因为此时中国在东亚窃行霸权主义。自二战后，士兵的牺牲不过是政治的棋子罢了。
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